Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Europe - Dark Days II Offers Opportunity

One of my favorite lines recently is "We are all currency traders now".  As we roll through the newest Euro-trouble, perhaps it is wise to see what has happened since the last european "issue", namely Greece.

Since the bottoming of the Euro on June 8th, the S&P is up 12% and S&P midcap growth is up 18%.

Am I saying that this will happen again?  No, decidedly not, as better earnings and US QEx has helped propel the markets forward.  What I am trying to point out is that the recovery from "dark days I or DD1" has been robust.  I would expect that recovery from "dark days II or DD2" will be decent as well.

I am looking at the following positions to benefit from "DD2":
Long FXE
Long FEZ (wouldn't mind shorting SPY into this leg, but I am a "long only" guy)



I will be playing with tight stops as I expect Portugal will offer us a "DD3" opportunity.

Thoughts?

DISCLOSURE:  No positions as of writing.

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About Me

A student of the markets that has held portfolio management, analysis and trading positions for over 15 years.