Friday, November 5, 2010

Nonfarm - Good Number, Couple of Thoughts

BLS Data released (otherwise known as non-farm).  I won't go deep on this as everyone does.  Thought the number was good and supports my "getting better" thesis. I will reiterate that the number looked good and supports recent "off the bottom" data and I will not be a "doom and gloomer" and try to punch holes.  That said, there are some points we have to understand.

First the pic, then the thoughts:

Thoughts:
Temp and retail the biggest gainers.  We are focused on quantity, not quality, something to think about.  Where does growth come from?  Job gains are not all created equal. 

Thoughts:
The unemployed are unemployed for longer periods.  This is not a great sign, and dovetails with my theory that employment gains take on a LIFO basis (last in to unemployment are the first out of unemployment) which is supported by the increase in EB and EUC.

Thoughts:
The trend in discouraged workers and those working part-time for economic reasons (kinda piggybacks with the retail/temp increase) is discouraging.  Lets not forget that discouraged workers fall out of the unemployed stats.  Admittedly, I am torn on the whole marginally attached subset.  You want a job but only looked a couple times (or not at all) during the last 12 months?  Really?  Last I checked, jobs don't go door-to-door looking for you.  Get up, get out and look.  (sounds mean perhaps, but too bad - its my blog)


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About Me

A student of the markets that has held portfolio management, analysis and trading positions for over 15 years.