Showing posts with label FXE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FXE. Show all posts

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Ireland Formally requests Aid

Reuters:

The EU and IMF agreed on Sunday to help bail out Ireland with loans to tackle its banking and budget crisis in a bid to protect Europe's financial stability.

Ireland, facing widespread public anger over its handling of the crisis, formally requested the aid on Sunday evening.

"The European authorities have agreed to our request," Prime Minister Brian Cowen said. "I expect that agreement to be finalised shortly, within the next few weeks."

The size of the rescue by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund has yet to be negotiated but is likely to be smaller than Greece's 110 billion euro ($150 billion) bailout last May.

"I would say we are talking about 80-90 billion euros," a senior EU source said, adding that this sum would include money to support the Irish banking sector.

EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF would prepare a three-year package of loans by the end of the month.

"Providing assistance to Ireland is warranted to safeguard the financial stability in Europe," Rehn told Reuters.

"The programme under preparation will address both the fiscal challenges of the Irish economy and the potential future capital needs of the banking sector in a decisive manner."

Britain, which is not part of the euro zone, said it would offer some 7 billion pounds ($11.19 billion) in bilateral aid.

Irish Banks should trade higher, the Euro is trading higher, Stoxx should trade higher.  FEZ still has room to go, but monitor closely as people turn their attention to Portugal.  Recall earlier post on Dark Days II and III.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Europe - Dark Days II Offers Opportunity

One of my favorite lines recently is "We are all currency traders now".  As we roll through the newest Euro-trouble, perhaps it is wise to see what has happened since the last european "issue", namely Greece.

Since the bottoming of the Euro on June 8th, the S&P is up 12% and S&P midcap growth is up 18%.

Am I saying that this will happen again?  No, decidedly not, as better earnings and US QEx has helped propel the markets forward.  What I am trying to point out is that the recovery from "dark days I or DD1" has been robust.  I would expect that recovery from "dark days II or DD2" will be decent as well.

I am looking at the following positions to benefit from "DD2":
Long FXE
Long FEZ (wouldn't mind shorting SPY into this leg, but I am a "long only" guy)



I will be playing with tight stops as I expect Portugal will offer us a "DD3" opportunity.

Thoughts?

DISCLOSURE:  No positions as of writing.

About Me

A student of the markets that has held portfolio management, analysis and trading positions for over 15 years.