Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Wells Fargo - Initial Thoughts and Stats

Some Stats:

  • Tier 1 common equity of 8%, up 40bps QOQ and 280bps YOY;
  • Tier 1 Capital of 10.9%, up 40bps QOQ and 30bps YOY;
  • Net charge-offs as % of avg. total loans 2.14% vs 2.33% 6/30;
  • NIM 4.25%, down 13bps sequentially and 11bps YOY;
  • Revenue of $20.9 billion; pre-tax pre-provision profit of $8.6 billion
  • Record net income of $3.34 billion; $21.2 billion of cumulative net income since Wachovia merger closed December 31, 2008;
  • Net loan charge-offs of $4.1 billion, down $394 million, or 9 percent from prior quarter, down $1.3 billion, or 24 percent, from fourth quarter 2009 peak;
  • Commercial and commercial real estate nonperforming loans were up approximately $400 million from
    the second quarter.
  • Reserve release of $650 million (pre tax) reflecting improved portfolio performance;
  • Credit losses continued to trend down, with net charge-offs declining 9 percent linked quarter, and down $1.3 billion, or 24 percent, from the peak in fourth quarter 2009. Allowance for credit losses equal to 150 percent of annualized net charge-offs;
  • Foreclosed assets were $6.1 billion at September 30, 2010, up $1.1 billion from second quarter of which
    $509 million was due to transfers from PCI portfolios, and $148 million from an increase in fully insured
    GNMA loans. 
  • ROA 1.09% - +6bps yoy
  • During the quarter, the Company provided $370 million for mortgage loan repurchase losses compared
    with $382 million in second quarter (included in revenue from mortgage loan origination/sales activities). 
    The lower provision this quarter reflected a decline in demands from agencies on the 2006-2008 vintages
    and lower total outstanding demands as the Company continues to work with investors to resolve the
    outstanding demand pipeline.

All in all, a decent quarter, somewhat surprised at the small mortgage repurchase volume (have to wait for that part of the call to get the assumptions).  For the most part, all segments of the bank are producing positive returns.  Results should help lift financials.

Bonds holding in well.  Think bonds are rich versus peers:
WFC 5¾ '18 120/115
JPM 4.4 '20 181/176
GS  6   '20 213/208

Seller of WFC > JPM.

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A student of the markets that has held portfolio management, analysis and trading positions for over 15 years.