Tuesday, October 12, 2010

QE2 - The Rumblings Continue

On the wire from Reuters:
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig said on Tuesday he does not expect the U.S. economy to experience a damaging downward price spiral unless there is a new shock to the system. "A drive in deflation like (during) the Great Depression is extremely harmful. That is an unlikely outcome unless we have a crisis," he said in response to questions after a speech.

The Federal Reserve -- the U.S. central -- has signaled it is ready pump more cash into the economy to boost growth, reduce the 9.6 percent unemployment rate and lift inflation from undesirably low levels. "As desperate as I am to see unemployment drop down, I don't want to take short-term measures that I don't think in the long run will solve that problem" and may in fact make it worse, he told the National Association of Business Economics.
 Earlier, Bloomberg posted:

Yellen Says Accommodative Policy May Increase Risk (Bloomberg) “It is conceivable that accommodative monetary policy could provide tinder for a buildup of leverage and excessive risk-taking in the financial system,”
Federal Reserve’s vice chairman Janet Yellen said in a speech. Yellen warned that Fed policies may in some cases be encouraging firms to “reach for yield” and could present officials “with difficult tradeoffs” if “emerging threats to financial stability become evident.” “Monetary policy cannot be a primary instrument for systemic risk management,” Yellen said in the text of her speech. Still, “I cannot unequivocally rule out the possibility that situations could emerge in which monetary policy should play some role in reining in risk-taking behavior,” she said. Yellen said “a top priority” of regulators assigned to monitor systemic risks should be determining whether asset prices are signaling the emergence of a bubble.

More members of the Fed and the Fed system are speaking against further stimulative policy action as the impact on the US Economy is not significant (nor fundamental or growth inducing).  The Fed may be telegraphing their inaction.

If the markets have been pushed up due to visions of QE2 dancing in the heads of participants (if there are any non-algos left), what would this foretell?  I am feeling a little "risk off" coming on.

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A student of the markets that has held portfolio management, analysis and trading positions for over 15 years.