One month ago:
Top 5 names remain the same, but the UK jumps ahead of CDS on loans. Fast forward to October 15th:
Now I ask you, where are folks betting there will be trouble?
I found this exercise interesting, did you?
This is my effort to help fit the pieces together to get a better picture of the capital markets.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Net Notional CDS Protection - Changes in the Top 10
Today I thought we would look at where folks are adding protection (buying protection, long CDS) over the last month. Keep in mind that the data is a week old (the newest DTCC will give folks like me). Here goes:
One month ago:
Italy is taking top honors, followed up by Germany, Spain, Brazil then France. Fast forward to October 8th:
Top 5 names remain the same, but the UK jumps ahead of CDS on loans. Fast forward to October 15th:
Top 5 are still the same, but Brazil jumps 2 slots to edge out Germany.
Now I ask you, where are folks betting there will be trouble?
I found this exercise interesting, did you?
One month ago:
Top 5 names remain the same, but the UK jumps ahead of CDS on loans. Fast forward to October 15th:
Now I ask you, where are folks betting there will be trouble?
I found this exercise interesting, did you?
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This exercise just goes to show that some investors believe the sovereign credit crisis is far from over. I'd also note that Italy is the only one of the PIIGS that also happens to be a member of the G7. Greek funding problems were one thing. But, a G7 member funding problem would really test the EU and Euro.
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