Thursday Market Recap

Well, its Thursday and I find myself sitting here trying to digest what happened today so I can try to piece it together, make sense of it and try to fit it into a macro picture.  Why?  I am not sure, for myself and my book, obviously but beyond that I hear/read nothing from anyone out there as to their thoughts.  So much for the collective wisdom of markets (yes, getting somewhat disheartened by the lack of response/comments).  In any event, lets begin.

Equities:

Equities had a mixed day, starting out strong, then rolling over as the dollar strengthened.  The overall trend of the market continues to be higher, but the test will be the April highs (1220 on S&P, 122 on SPY).  Would not be surprised if we tested the highs again (financials willing) as earnings have been decent and a bullish undertone seems to be in place.  A lot could depend on the nature and amount of QE2, which is baked in the cake.  I am not sure the Fed/Treasury could pull out now if they wanted to as the market would roll over and the "stocks go up always" policy objective would fail going into elections (keep an eye on the elections).

Here's a snapshot of the US equities markets today:

And a little longer term perspective (longer term in market eyes - trading, not investor):

A little more positive conviction will get us to the test point, beyond which I am not sure how we go much higher unless we see multiple expansion as earnings expansion does not seem to be in place (have you seen some of the guidance by the bigger firms?).

As for the international markets (well, to me anyhow) we saw the same type of action we saw in the states, with continental Europe outperforming.  Commodity currency countries were somewhat weak - although Australia is in the green as I write.

I am still somewhat nervous over Brazil, their market was down today and I can't overlook the increase in CDS being bought on the sovereign.

 In any event,  here is the capitalization chart:

Gee, midcaps still leading the pack?  We are not surprised, are we?

And growth Value:

Growth, really?

Okay all, I realize I skipped fixed income and currencies (yeah, I know, on the day of the $1.5B EBAY deal too), but a fella has to know when his time is up - at least for the day.  Be sure to check out Seeking Alpha for more posts (although the blog has been getting the lions share).

Good luck, lets be careful out there.