Gallup Unemployment up 80bps in Sept

From Gallup:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September -- up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month -- the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September -- and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday.

 The increase in the unemployment rate component of Gallup's underemployment measure is partially offset by fewer part-time workers, 8.7%, now wanting full-time work, down from 9.3% in August and 9.5% at the end of July.

 This is an interesting chart.  The hardest thing to measure is the underemployed.  If someone loses a high paying (or even median paying) job and ends up working part-time , they are employed, but their earnings (and therefore the multiplier) are significantly lower.

As a result, underemployment shows a more modest increase to 18.8% in September from 18.6% in August, though it is up from 18.4% in July. Underemployment peaked at 20.4% in April and has yet to fall below 18.3% this year.

Gallup also found a hiring turndown (is that a word???) in the second half of the month which may not be included in the NFP report.


I think the bottom line here is that no set of numbers can really give one a firm grasp of the employment situation and its resultant impact on the economy.  I personally believe in just paying attention to the world around you (go to the mall, ask folks about store traffic...).  Yeah, it doesn't fit easily into a model, but look where models got us so far.



Get the rest here:  Gallup Sept