Jobless Claims Thursday - Above Expectations, Watch EUC

From the Labor Dept (emphasis mine):

In the week ending Oct. 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 457,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 437,000 (revised from 434k). The 4-week moving average was 456,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average of 454,000 (revised from 453k).

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.4 percent for the week ending Oct. 23, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 419,351 in the week ending Oct. 30, an increase of 10,881 from the previous week. There were 482,612 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent during the week ending Oct. 23, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,719,209, a decrease of 45,084 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.7 percent and the volume was 4,932,036.

States reported 3,978,374 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Oct. 16, an increase of 198,579 from the prior week. There were 3,496,960 claimants in the comparable week in 2009. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity. 

Interesting tidbit:  CA reported +3.7k increase in unemployed, stating "Layoffs in forestry, fishing, and agriculture."  Hasn't agriculture been on fire?  Forestry continues to concern me as we have seen lumber prices increasing with no corresponding increased activity in forestry.

Bottom line:  Numbers were above expectations, prior numbers revised marginally upwards.  Doesn't jive with the ADP numbers.  Doesn't bode well for tomorrow's number.  BUT, I continue to believe we are seeing the bottom and will begin to build from here (especially with QE2 - NOT) in a very slow and sometimes choppy way.  The numbers that concern me most are the EB and EUC numbers, which point to increased duration of unemployment (something I can personally vouch for).  Unfortunately I think we will see a LIFO style re-employment trend - last into the unemployment pool will be the first out of the pool.  This will also jam the numbers as more folks will drop from the statistics as discouraged workers.