Libya - Corporate Threat Assessment

Trying to compile some companies doing business in Libya.  My concerns stretch far further than Libya at this juncture as I believe we a re seeing a fundamental shift in the governing of Northern African and Middle Eastern countries.  This is not the end of the conflict, rather we appear to be in the 5th/6th inning.  It is going to get worse.

Libya exports some 1.1 million barrels of crude a day from production of 1.6 million barrels -- ranking it about 17th among world oil producers. And it has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa.

The United States, the world's largest consumer of oil, does not import any petroleum from Libya. But disruptions elsewhere can raise the price of oil worldwide.


From Stratfor:

Unlike energy produced in most African states, nearly all of Libya’s oil and natural gas is produced onshore. This reduces development costs but increases the chances that political instability could impact output — and Libya has been anything but stable of late. 

Libya’s 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil output can be broken into two categories. The first comes from a basin in the country’s western extreme and is exported from a single major hub just west of Tripoli. The second basin is in the country’s eastern region and is exported from a variety of facilities in eastern cities. At the risk of oversimplifying, Libya’s population is split in half: Leader Moammar Gadhafi’s power base is in Tripoli in the extreme west, the opposition is concentrated in Benghazi in the east, with a 600 kilometer-wide gulf of nearly empty desert in between. 

BP - The British firm ended a 30-year absence from Libya in 2007 when it signed its biggest-ever exploration commitment through a bilateral deal. It will spend at least $900 million to search the onshore Ghadames area and offshore Sirte basin with 17 exploration wells.

Royal Dutch Shell - The London-listed company was awarded a gas exploration permit in 2007 for areas in the Sirte Basin, and was also awarded permits in 2005.

ExxonMobil - In February 2008 the U.S. oil major agreed with Libya's national oil company to invest $97 million plus tens of millions in fees in offshore hydrocarbon exploration. The company in 2005 struck an exploration and production-sharing deal with Libya's state oil company that covers the Cyrenaica Basin, covering 2.5 million acres, from deep to shallow waters.

Occidental - The company, which began business in Libya in 1966, reported first-quarter 2009 net production from Libya of 8,000 barrels per day, down from 22,000 bpd a year earlier. In late 2007 it won gas-focused permits to explore areas of the Sirte basin, and in 2005 was the biggest winner in Libya's first licensing round.

Statoil - Statoil participates in land-based oil production and exploration activities in the Mabruk field and in the Murzuk basin. A spokesman said it was keeping its office in Tripoli closed and that a "handful of expatriates" were leaving the country.



Just as a reminder:

While somewhat stale, this should help give you a picture of where the oil comes from in Africa.

Away from oil:

Italy's UniCredit is 7.5-percent-owned by Libyan investors;

While oil is the natural first strike in de-risking exposure to the area, should the political contagion spread further into the middle east (think Iran and Iranian influenced countries) we could see further de-risking on a more broad scale.  Also wise to watch the Euro as Europe is the main benefactor of Libyan oil.

The Euro today is showing strains against the dollar:

More as I get it.