Industrial Production - Its not the Number, Its the Trend

IP and CU released today.  Below estimates but look closer and skip the data point to data point nonsense.

Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in September after having increased 0.2 percent in August. The indexes both for manufacturing and for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts also moved down 0.2 percent in September.

The index for manufacturing decelerated sharply in the third quarter: After having jumped at an annual rate of 9.1 percent in the second quarter, factory output gained 3.6 percent in the third quarter. At 93.2 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in September was 5.4 percent above its year-earlier level.

The capacity utilization rate for total industry edged down to 74.7 percent, a rate 4.2 percentage points above the rate from a year earlier but 5.9 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009. 

Capacity Utilization looks better to me, no?

And industrial production:

 

Not too bad.

Bottom line: Overlook the headline number and look at the trend.  Revisions have been upward this year, which would put the number at estimates.  While not incredibly strong, IP and CU are stabilizing and pointing up.  The trend is your friend here.