Thursday, October 21, 2010

APD Credit Thoughts

APD earnings out (beat on equity side, credit looks stronger):

  • Air Products reported income from continuing operations of $294 million versus $246 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009.
  • Fourth quarter revenues of $2,351 million increased 10 percent versus prior year and four percent sequentially.
  • Operating income of $402 million rose 22 percent versus prior year and seven percent sequentially on higher volumes across all segments. For the year, operating income was up 25% on an adjusted basis.  Operating margin of 16.5%, up 220 basis points.
  • Merchant Gases sales of $948 million (40% of total) up 2% yoy
  • Tonnage Gases sales of $752 million (32% of total) up 17% yoy
  • Electronics and Performance Materials sales of $523 million (22% of total) up 20% yoy
  • Equipment and Energy sales of $128 million (5% of total) up 5% yoy

Outlook:  committed to delivering 2011 targets of double digit earnings growth, improving return on capital and achieving a 17 percent operating margin."  Capex will fall between $1.5 - $1.7B.

Stats:
Debt/Cap:  42% vs 44% (6/10) and 48% (9/09)
2010 CFO:  $1,552; CAPEX: $1,030; Div: $398 = FCF of  $124MM  (vs -$223MM in 2009)
EBITDA:  $2.4B vs. $1.8B '09
Debt/EBITDA:  1.7x vs 2.5x '09


The credit metrics and performance would serve to increase their ability to make the ARG acquisition happen without a significant deterioration of underlying fundamentals.

ARG 2.85 '13s  +145
ARG 3.25 '15     +175
APD 4.375 '19  +95

Trade Ideas:
S ARG 13s B ARG 15s - curve is very steep.
S APD 19s B ARG 15s

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A student of the markets that has held portfolio management, analysis and trading positions for over 15 years.