Showing posts with label relval. Show all posts
Showing posts with label relval. Show all posts

Thursday, October 21, 2010

APD Credit Thoughts

APD earnings out (beat on equity side, credit looks stronger):

  • Air Products reported income from continuing operations of $294 million versus $246 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009.
  • Fourth quarter revenues of $2,351 million increased 10 percent versus prior year and four percent sequentially.
  • Operating income of $402 million rose 22 percent versus prior year and seven percent sequentially on higher volumes across all segments. For the year, operating income was up 25% on an adjusted basis.  Operating margin of 16.5%, up 220 basis points.
  • Merchant Gases sales of $948 million (40% of total) up 2% yoy
  • Tonnage Gases sales of $752 million (32% of total) up 17% yoy
  • Electronics and Performance Materials sales of $523 million (22% of total) up 20% yoy
  • Equipment and Energy sales of $128 million (5% of total) up 5% yoy

Outlook:  committed to delivering 2011 targets of double digit earnings growth, improving return on capital and achieving a 17 percent operating margin."  Capex will fall between $1.5 - $1.7B.

Stats:
Debt/Cap:  42% vs 44% (6/10) and 48% (9/09)
2010 CFO:  $1,552; CAPEX: $1,030; Div: $398 = FCF of  $124MM  (vs -$223MM in 2009)
EBITDA:  $2.4B vs. $1.8B '09
Debt/EBITDA:  1.7x vs 2.5x '09


The credit metrics and performance would serve to increase their ability to make the ARG acquisition happen without a significant deterioration of underlying fundamentals.

ARG 2.85 '13s  +145
ARG 3.25 '15     +175
APD 4.375 '19  +95

Trade Ideas:
S ARG 13s B ARG 15s - curve is very steep.
S APD 19s B ARG 15s

About Me

A student of the markets that has held portfolio management, analysis and trading positions for over 15 years.