We seem to be getting some traction in reducing the number of initial claims, which should begin to help prop up employment figures. While not an out of the park number, it is a decent sign - especially when combined with the reduction in EUC and EB.In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 393,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,750, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 400,750.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 360,139 in the week ending November 12, a decrease of 42,355 from the previous week. There were 409,548 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.
States reported 2,935,466 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending October 29, a decrease of 18,358 from the prior week. There were 3,961,485 claimants in the comparable week in 2010. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.
Now we have to make a more meaningful impact on the continuing claims series.
All in all, I think this should be taken as a modestly positive sign for the US economy. Absent the problems in Europe, Treasuriy prices should drift lower (higher yields) given the firming employment picture. Unfortunately, we can't invest "absent the turmoil in Europe" so it is still too early to set a short in UST. This may, however, reinforce the premise that corporate America is solid credit iis still a decent play (the equity market is dictated by the European whack-a-mole).
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