Saturday, January 8, 2011

Portugal - The Dominos Are Lined Up

Read the following news from Reuters and it reminded me of another European case (yeah, Ireland).  When they start pushing, it isn't for optics, its because its about to hit the fan.  Now its Portugal, but if you follow debt spreads, can you guess who's next?  Top up a bailout fund?  Friends, if Spain chokes there is going to be a lot more topping needed.  And when Greece defaults, that will be the cherry on top.  If Portugal gets a package, I would expect the Euro to briefly rally and then roll over as the markets figure out the path that is being followed.  Would also expect the dollar to rally (least worst???) as well as the pound.
(Reuters) Germany and France want Portugal to accept an international bailout as soon as possible in order to prevent its debt crisis spreading to other countries, German magazine Der Spiegel reported on Saturday.
Without citing its sources, the magazine said government experts from both European heavyweights were concerned Lisbon will soon not be able to finance its debt at reasonable rates, after its borrowing costs rose at the end of last year.
Berlin and Paris also want euro zone countries to publicly commit to do whatever it takes to protect the bloc's single currency, including topping up a 750 billion euro ($968 billion) rescue fund if necessary.
Portugal is viewed by many economists as the peripheral euro zone country that is most likely to follow Ireland and Greece to seek an international bailout as it grapples to cut its debts and borrowing costs. It holds its first bond auction of the year next week.

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A student of the markets that has held portfolio management, analysis and trading positions for over 15 years.