Initial Claims 11-17 - My 2 Cents

From the initial claims release this morning:

In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 393,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,750, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 400,750.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 360,139 in the week ending November 12, a decrease of 42,355 from the previous week. There were 409,548 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

States reported 2,935,466 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending October 29, a decrease of 18,358 from the prior week. There were 3,961,485 claimants in the comparable week in 2010. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

We seem to be getting some traction in reducing the number of initial claims, which should begin to help prop up employment figures.  While not an out of the park number, it is a decent sign - especially when combined with the reduction in EUC and EB.



Now we have to make a more meaningful impact on the continuing claims series.



All in all, I think this should be taken as a modestly positive sign for the US economy.  Absent the problems in Europe, Treasuriy prices should drift lower (higher yields) given the firming employment picture.  Unfortunately, we can't invest "absent the turmoil in Europe" so it is still too early to set a short in UST.  This may, however, reinforce the premise that corporate America is solid credit iis still a decent play (the equity market is dictated by the European whack-a-mole).

Initial Claims for Week Ended Nov. 27

Claims came in above expectations and prior week numbers were revised up 3k.  Not a huge miss, but could be a set up for disappointing action should the ECB not announce massive Euro QE.  Should Euro QE (in size and unsterilized) be announced, this number becomes irrelevant.

DOL:

In the week ending Nov. 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 436,000, an increase of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 410,000 (revised from 407k). The 4-week moving average was 431,000, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's revised average of 436,750. 

States reported 3,944,168 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Nov. 13, an increase of 142,874 from the prior week. There were 3,781,434 claimants in the comparable week in 2009. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.  Extended benefits rose 92k to 955.9k (unadjusted).

Jobless Claim Thursday

We all see the headline numbers, but if not, here's a snap:

Seasonally adjusted initial claims down 16k vs. prior week and 4wk MA down 6k vs last week.  Not bad (in other words, its not really bad).  But then:

Look at how high EUC and extended benefits are versus last year.  This is good?  Ummm, getting better?  Versus prior week, things are better.  How many of these folks are just running out of benefits.  Don't forget, folks just falling off the rolls is not better, it is worse - it just makes the numbers look better.

Have a great day.