ADP - Continues Favorable Data

ADP payroll data was released this morning.  Rather than concentrate on the recent divergenge between ADP and NFP, let me just say that I believe (as I have stated previously) that there is a nascent job recovery occurring.  Most of the stats I have looked at seem to be pointing to the recovery having teeth.  Should this be the case, we have to begin positioning small cap stocks (of the growth variety).

Private-sector employment increased by 297,000 from November to December on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report  released today.  The estimated change of employment from October to November was revised down but only slightly, from the previously reported increase of 93,000 to an increase of 92,000.  

This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests nonfarm private employment grew very strongly in December, at a pace well above what is usually associated with a declining unemployment rate.  After a mid-year pause, employment seems to have accelerated as indicated by September’s employment gain of 29,000, October’s gain of 79,000, November’s gain of 92,000 and December’s gain of 297,000.  Strength was also evident within all major industries and every size business tracked in the ADP Report.

Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, increased by 36,000 while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 144,000.  Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, increased by 117,000. 

 Full release here:  ADP December

BLS Job Openings - More Not Bad is Good

Bloomberg:

Job openings in the U.S. rose in October for the first time in three months, reaching the highest level in two years, a government report showed.

Openings increased by 351,000 to 3.36 million, the most since August 2008, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of people hired decreased from the prior month and separations also fell.

Openings increased 12 percent in October from a revised 3.01 million in the prior month, the Labor Department said.

The rate of job openings rose to 2.5 percent from 2.3 percent in September, according to today’s report. Professional and business services, which includes accountants, computer systems experts and temporary-help agencies, had the biggest increases in available employment, followed by education and health care. Openings dropped at construction firms and government agencies.

Compared with the 14.8 million Americans who were unemployed in October, today’s figures indicate there were 4.4 people vying for every opening, up from about 1.8 when the recession began in December 2007. The number of jobless climbed to 15.1 million last month, pushing the unemployment rate up to a seven-month high of 9.8 percent, the Labor Department reported last week.

 Again, nascent recovery.

Full arelease from BLS here BLS Job Openings

Manpower Survey - Not Bad is Good

I continue to believe that we are seeing a nascent job recovery market in the United States and, in fact, globally (with some notable exceptions - PIIGS).  While I do not see this as robust - in any way - at this juncture, the bleeding needs to stop before the patient can be stabilized and this is where I believe we are.

Should this be the case, it will be evidence that we are in the midst of a recovery and give some credence to the risk appetite that we have witnessed.

From Manpower:

Results for the first quarter 2011 global Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today byManpower Inc. suggest a more positive start to the new year for the global labor market. Data reveals improved hiring expectations from 12 months ago in 28 of 39 countries and territories, including the G7 countries of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, where hiring plans are stable or improved from both the fourth quarter of 2010 and this time last year. Despite continued mixed results across Europe, German employers are reporting their strongest hiring plans since early 2008. Meanwhile, hiring intentions among U.S. employers remain modest but signal the most optimistic first-quarter outlook in three years. Job prospects continue to be robust across the Asia Pacific region with Chinese and Indian employers reporting the most optimistic hiring intentions globally.

"The bright spot in Europe continues to be Germany, where the unemployment rate is at its lowest in 18 years and engineers and financial professionals continue to be in high demand. In fact, the hiring forecast from Finance and Business Services employers is the strongest first-quarter outlook since we began surveying the German market in 2003," said Joerres. "In contrast, employer hiring confidence in the Greek and Spanish markets continues to erode. However, data for Italy shows improved hiring expectations for the third consecutive quarter resulting in the first positive forecast from Italian employers in more than two years." 

 "Seasonally adjusted data for the United States indicates the most optimistic first-quarter hiring sentiment in three years; yet 73 percent of employers indicate they will keep staff levels unchanged," said Joerres. "So while we're seeing positive signals in the data, only time will tell if we've reached the inflection point in the U.S. labor market recovery.