Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Greece - Balance Sheet is Unsustainable

In the news:


(Reuters) - Long-term investors standing aloof from the Greek debt crisis want holders of its government bonds to take a loss big enough to slash the country's debt to sustainable levels before they consider returning.

Greece is still expected to default at some point and for most investors who have dumped bonds over the past two years and who are crucial to put the ailing economy back on its feet, the longer that is delayed, the longer it will be before they consider looking at Greek assets again.

A likely second bailout -- currently under tortuous negotiation -- is seen only as a means to buy time for euro zone banks to provision for eventual losses and protect the bloc's larger economies from contamination, while the reforms attached to the package will be hard to implement in the face of deepening public resentment.
 Friends, Greece is not viable without a major restructuring of its debt.  Tax collections are laughable, tourism can only get you so far (see tax collections) and olives grow elsewhere.  This country cannot support the debt it has, will not support the debt its and any temporary fix is just that - temporary.  Debt needs to be almost halved in order for the country to make a go of it.  Propping up European banks and trying to keep the problem localized is not a strategy nor a solution.  Sometimes it just makes sense to mail the keys back.

Yasou!

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About Me

A student of the markets that has held portfolio management, analysis and trading positions for over 15 years.