Thursday, March 3, 2011

Bond market Update

First, lets look at Trace data:

I wont even bother continuing to point out the hi/low ratio - especially in high yield.  So much for the bubble!  Converts are naturally on fire as equities zoomed today (TMO continues to rock!).

Lets move on to CDS indices:

High yield continues to concern me that it is getting ahead of itself - or at least fully valued.  IG is near value - a little left, but not much.  There might be value in select EM credit, but one has to be very picky here.

And govvies:

Risk off - 'nuff said?  EU might raise rates, US economic data coming in stronger than expectations - the one two punch to globals.  Personally, I am short long US govvies as I feel (and pay) rising inflation that these intellectuals are gonna miss (perhaps they should do their own shopping - unless they shop ex-food and energy).

All in - good day for risk, bad day for "risk free".  Ride the wave friend - but wait for the numbers tomorrow to get the feel for risk positions.

Oh yeah, giving credit where due:  the charts today are from the WSJ online.  Usually I have to dig multiple sites, but tonight I was somewhat lazy.

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About Me

A student of the markets that has held portfolio management, analysis and trading positions for over 15 years.